UBS: Alphabet’s self-driving car business could be worth $114 billion by 2030
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UBS: Alphabet’s self-driving car business could be worth $114 billion by 2030

Tech titan Alphabet’s autonomous driving division, Waymo, has just launched its own commercial taxi service. And, while it’s just a small pilot at the moment, investment bank UBS thinks it could bring in as much as $114 billion in revenue in 2030. When you consider that, right now, UBS thinks Waymo is worth somewhere between $25 billion and $135 billion, the scale of growth that the bank expects to see is made more apparent.

Between the tech backlash and the trade war with China, Alphabet’s share price has dropped 1% in 2018 so far

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Source: Yahoo Finance

UBS said that its estimate only includes revenue from robotaxi-related services (in other words, self-driving taxis). It also thinks that Waymo has opportunities in the logistics and commercial delivery spaces too. When you consider that Intel has the self-driving industry as a whole generating $800 billion by 2035, the market’s confidence in Waymo is clear.

None of this is to say that Waymo is a guaranteed win. Other big players are starting their own self-driving taxi service (although Waymo benefits from Alphabet’s deep pockets and AI capabilities, as well as its position as first-mover). And, as the new pilot scheme shows, there’s still lots of regulatory and safety kinks to work out. For the moment, Waymo’s taxis will include ‘safety drivers’ to supervise the vehicles decision making.

The company’s CEO, John Krafcik, announced the pilot via a blog post. He wrote: “Today, we’re taking the next step in our journey with the introduction of our commercial self-driving service, Waymo One. We’ll first offer Waymo One to hundreds of early riders who have already been using our technology. Over time, we hope to make Waymo One available to even more members of the public as we add vehicles and drive in more places. Self-driving technology is new to many, so we’re proceeding carefully with the comfort and convenience of our riders in mind. At first, Waymo-trained drivers will supervise our Waymo One vehicles.”

Dominion holds Alphabet, the parent company of Waymo, in its Global Trends Ecommerce Fund.

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